The warning comes from the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR), a British non-profit organization that analyzes and debates political and economic ideas. According to this think tank, around 8 million jobs in the UK are at risk with the introduction of artificial intelligence unless the government intervenes.
Currently, 11% of jobs could easily be performed by artificial intelligence. These include “routine cognitive tasks” like database management and “organizational and strategic tasks” such as programming or inventory management. Back-office jobs, part-time roles, and tasks performed by entry-level employees are more vulnerable to automation. Women and young people are likely to be the most affected demographics. However, the percentage of impacted job types could rise to 59% if companies decide to integrate this technology more deeply.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Among the various scenarios outlined by the Institute, there’s also the possibility of “significant increases in wages and GDP,” according to the report. This outcome will depend on the policies the government chooses to implement. Suggestions from the think tank include support for “green” jobs, which are less exposed to automation, fiscal policies like tax incentives or subsidies to encourage job growth rather than complete displacement, and regulatory changes to ensure key aspects such as worker health.
The IPPR has modeled three potential scenarios of the second wave of AI adoption’s impact on the labor market, depending on policy choices, urging choices that aim for careful redistribution of economic benefits, which should not accrue to a few.
Worst-case Scenario – Complete Displacement: All at-risk jobs are replaced by AI, resulting in a loss of 7.9 million jobs and no increase in GDP.
Medium Scenario: 4.4 million jobs disappear, but with economic gains equal to 6.3% of GDP (£144 billion per year).
Best Scenario – Total Enhancement: All at-risk jobs are enhanced to adapt to AI instead of being replaced, resulting in a job loss equivalent to an economic increase of 13% of GDP (£306 billion per year).
Major Labor Market Disruptions
According to the IPPR, without government intervention and with companies left to their own devices, the worst-case scenario is a real possibility. According to Carsten Jung, an economist at IPPR, “existing generative AI could lead to major disruptions in the labor market or greatly increase economic growth. In any case, it is destined to change the playing field for millions of us. Many companies are already investing in this technology, which has the potential to speed up many other activities as more businesses adopt it.” The report also highlights how the use of AI could free up labor to fill current gaps in key sectors. For example, workers could be reassigned to social care and mental health services, which currently lack sufficient resources.
Source – Web
Ig – @fairness_mag
